After the BETA weekend we have just have Square Enix Holdings Stock price lifted 7% in the first hour of trading this morning.
Whilst this might seem like a very boring point, share prices are generally based on future expectations of company performance (not entirely and if anyone wants to take me up on a debate on this perhaps this is not the best forum for it), and a lift of this order immediately after a weekend like we've just have is likely to be mostly due to optimism following the beta.
The markets think this game is going to generate some money for SE. They think it more today than they did on Friday :-)
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HallieXIV wrote:
After the BETA weekend we have just have Square Enix Holdings Stock price lifted 7% in the first hour of trading this morning.
Whilst this might seem like a very boring point, share prices are generally based on future expectations of company performance (not entirely and if anyone wants to take me up on a debate on this perhaps this is not the best forum for it), and a lift of this order immediately after a weekend like we've just have is likely to be mostly due to optimism following the beta.
The markets think this game is going to generate some money for SE. They think it more today than they did on Friday :-)
Whilst this might seem like a very boring point, share prices are generally based on future expectations of company performance (not entirely and if anyone wants to take me up on a debate on this perhaps this is not the best forum for it), and a lift of this order immediately after a weekend like we've just have is likely to be mostly due to optimism following the beta.
The markets think this game is going to generate some money for SE. They think it more today than they did on Friday :-)
I bet it had something to do with the E3 video showing how PS4 shares its games, as well as the great E3 videos of FF14.
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If the stock market reacted that slowly I'd be a millionaire. I'm pretty sure people buy and sell in "real time"... In fact. I'm doubly sure. Any market reaction to E3 happened that day or in after hours trading.
[ffxivsig]1690295[/ffxivsig]
After hours trading will be reflected at the opening of the markets after the weekend so technically, news not acted upon on Friday by close of markets could have had an impact but a 7% jump is significant and, in my opinion, likely to be due to a more positive outlook on MOnday compared with Friday.
Markets respond to news very quickly following price sensitive announcements. What is interesting with something like this is that the market is responding not to an announcement by SE (I checked) but some other indicator of anticipated change of fortune. I wonder if any brokers from big trading houses were in beta this weekend :-)
Markets respond to news very quickly following price sensitive announcements. What is interesting with something like this is that the market is responding not to an announcement by SE (I checked) but some other indicator of anticipated change of fortune. I wonder if any brokers from big trading houses were in beta this weekend :-)
This is funny to me. For real though, if the stock did go up over the weekend, by 7%, I would bet money it was because of the Beta. That makes me feel good, for sure. Cool info.
... In hind sight short selling Square Enix stock was a huge mistake.
:P
:P
Damn Pulazka, I didnt know Martha Stewart played FFXIV 
Awww... I thought this was talking about the Market Wards!! lol
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RhuarcAllah wrote:
Damn Pulazka, I didnt know Martha Stewart played FFXIV
Martha Stewart ? Hahaha. More like Bernie Madoff xD
SirLuciousLeftfoot wrote:
Awww... I thought this was talking about the Market Wards!! lol
Posts relevant to FFXIV on an FFXIV forum - that's just crazy talk.
#11REDACTED,
Posted: Jun 16 2013 at 8:50 PM, Rating: Sub-Default, (Expand Post) I'm gonna guess this is totally unrelated to XIV too. lol
Killua125 wrote:
I'm gonna guess this is totally unrelated to XIV too. lol
Killua - I would be extremely suprised if that was the case.
FIrst up, SE's fortunes are very much tied to the success of the FF franchise. FFXI is its most profitable release ever and so it is natural the market would be interested in the potential success of FFXIV. Also, there is a substantial sum of money invested in an MMO, the performance of beta is price sensitive information that will have an impact on share price.
Secondly, I have checked the corporate releases and there was no other market information released that would have had an impact on SE's share price today.
Thirdly (and perhaps most telling). I work in the financial markets (not front office) and received a briefing this morning advising of "general feedback" on SE stock pricing citing "well received beta information" as a key reason for an expected increase of around 6% in stock price first thing this morning. Currently price is up around 7.5% but that is probably partly due to a bootstrapping effect of people seeing the stock outstrip market performance so everyone starts buying up thinking someone knows something they don't. Price may fall later today back to around a 6% increase suggested.
I did not reveal the third point earlier today as I was not sure whether I was allowed to or not.
Edited, Jun 16th 2013 11:14pm by HallieXIV
Yes stock traders following a beta test in order to invest money Some of you are really innocent at times
Ostia wrote:
Yes stock traders following a beta test in order to invest money Some of you are really innocent at times
Don't follow beta tests - but do follow news media and other methods of garnering pricing information for major international corporations whose financial success is based on game popularity. If you don't understand how the markets work, that's not a reason to criticise others.
To you Ostia this is a game. To SE it is a multi-hundred million dollar investment.
They don't even need to invest in a big data analytics engine - they can just get a general mood based on Twitter for feedback. #FFXIV combined with either positive or negative moods is a good indicator. (Add in some love from #KH3 and #FFXV and you have some very happy investors.)
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Thayos wrote:
I can't understand anyone who skips the cutscenes of a Final Fantasy game. That's like going to Texas and not getting barbecue.
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pulazka wrote:
... In hind sight short selling Square Enix stock was a huge mistake.
:P
:P
Not by investment standards lol...they have tanked pretty hard since the merger. But I suppose the alternative was for both to go under.
HallieXIV wrote:
Ostia wrote:
Yes stock traders following a beta test in order to invest money Some of you are really innocent at times
Don't follow beta tests - but do follow news media and other methods of garnering pricing information for major international corporations whose financial success is based on game popularity. If you don't understand how the markets work, that's not a reason to criticise others.
To you Ostia this is a game. To SE it is a multi-hundred million dollar investment.
There has been no news media release about beta phase 3 reception.... So there goes your argument.
But! You know... E3 just happened.... Hmmm! It could be that..... But nonono we must say it was XIV...
I like how everyone is certain for everything. Take Ostia for example he is certain that was not the beta.
What i am trying to say with that is you guys should keep somewhat lower profile and hold back a bit juuuuust in case you are wrong and you do not know everything.
What i am trying to say with that is you guys should keep somewhat lower profile and hold back a bit juuuuust in case you are wrong and you do not know everything.
Ostia wrote:
HallieXIV wrote:
Ostia wrote:
Yes stock traders following a beta test in order to invest money Some of you are really innocent at times
Don't follow beta tests - but do follow news media and other methods of garnering pricing information for major international corporations whose financial success is based on game popularity. If you don't understand how the markets work, that's not a reason to criticise others.
To you Ostia this is a game. To SE it is a multi-hundred million dollar investment.
There has been no news media release about beta phase 3 reception.... So there goes your argument.
But! You know... E3 just happened.... Hmmm! It could be that..... But nonono we must say it was XIV...
Ostia, I am not going to argue with you about this as that would require me to school you in market theory etc. which I am not going to do.
The markets are pretty efficient pricing new information in almost instantaneously. There are analysts who are specialists in the entertainment sector who monitor likely price events and advise brokers and front office accordingly as to stocks under/over valued and come up with recommendations. E3 events would have been priced in throughout the week last week by the analysts and whilst there would have been some carry over, most of this movement will be due to the good reception beta has had, put simply, there was nothing else that could have had a significant price impact.
I didnt mention media releases - you did. Companies are required to file certain significant information with relevant stock exchanges that they are listed on. I checked to ensure that SE had not lodged any releases that could have caused this change in price.
I am not going to argue about this anymore. You can either trust me or don't. My credentials are 20 years (almost) working in the financial markets, 10 years of that as an equities analyst - sure, I don't know everything and I often get it wrong but on this one I am speaking from a position of strength which is why I made the opening post in the first place.
In future I'll keep my posts to "I hate that FFXIV is not FFXI" to appease you, I just though this information might be of at least a little interest to a community keeping an eye on FFXIV.
Teravibe wrote:
I like how everyone is certain for everything. Take Ostia for example he is certain that was not the beta.
What i am trying to say with that is you guys should keep somewhat lower profile and hold back a bit juuuuust in case you are wrong and you do not know everything.
What i am trying to say with that is you guys should keep somewhat lower profile and hold back a bit juuuuust in case you are wrong and you do not know everything.
See my posts above, I am absolutely 100% certain that the increase in share price was significantly due to a good reception of beta and resultant increase in forecast earnings. It was in investor briefings at the opening of the market this morning. Keep in mind, as noted above FFXI has been the most profitable SE release to date and so anything that could be like that is going to be of massive interest to the market.
I was a little wrong though. The briefing I read predicted a 6% increase in price for the day, the actual increase was 7.5%. That reflects a good sentiment (an in my opinion) is probably a fair increase given the dependence SE has on this game being successful.
edit: for clarity.
Edited, Jun 17th 2013 4:08am by HallieXIV
HallieXIV wrote:
See my posts above, I am absolutely 100% certain that the increase in share price was due to a good reception of beta. It was in investor briefings at the opening of the market this morning.
Ruisu wrote:
HallieXIV wrote:
See my posts above, I am absolutely 100% certain that the increase in share price was due to a good reception of beta. It was in investor briefings at the opening of the market this morning.
You are correct Ruisu, it all contributes.
It is not necessarily beta that is noteworthy, it is forecast income for SE. Market expectation of SE's income is higher today than it was Friday hence an increase in share price. Many of the E3 announcements were already priced in on Friday. Whilst there is some carry over into the weekend (when the markets don't formally trade), a 7.51% increase is a significant jump. Long term expectations of steady revenue flow cause that sort of jump, beta going from universally hated to universally loved will cause movement.
Of course, it could all fall apart if expectations change again....
#23REDACTED,
Posted: Jun 17 2013 at 2:19 AM, Rating: Sub-Default, (Expand Post) You are almost as good as mitt romney was at backtracking 
news media =/= media releases
Other methods.
Other methods.
So this "Other Methods" Include rich people playing the beta themselves ? Having people under them play them ? having people be part of the beta forum community to have inside knowledge of the game ? Data mining ? Magic 8 ball ?
You know why i am very skeptical about this ? Because every time SE loses money, or loses stock, there is always somebody that says, it was because of this game, and everybody flocks to it's defense, and say it was because of something else... But as soon as SE makes 3 dollars, it must have been this game
Also do not underestimate Versus popularity... That was the best news SE delivered at E3! BY FAR!
You know why i am very skeptical about this ? Because every time SE loses money, or loses stock, there is always somebody that says, it was because of this game, and everybody flocks to it's defense, and say it was because of something else... But as soon as SE makes 3 dollars, it must have been this game
Also do not underestimate Versus popularity... That was the best news SE delivered at E3! BY FAR!
I do not claim that i know anything about this but let me ask you what day was the versus trailer in E3? Because if it was on Friday then somethings is really wrong if the market reacted 3 days later.
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