The only thing is, a lot of people saved troll pieces until they got to 450 just to try for
Zin'rokh, Destroyer of Worlds before Blizz put the cap in, and they were still complaining about how rare it was. If that theory held any water...
On solve 1, there is a 99% chance to not get the sword.
On solve 2, 92 results are a common, 1 is the sword. 98.9%
3. 85/1. 98.8%
4. 78/1. 98.7%
5. 71/1. 98.6%
6. 64/1. 98.5%
7. 56/1. 98.2%
8. 49/1. 98%
9. 42/1. 97.7%
10. 35/1. 97.2%
11. 28/1. 96.6%
12. 21/1. 95.5%
13. 14/1. 93.3%
14. 7/1. 87.5%
Chance on NOT getting the sword... ~64%. I'm not buying that 1 in 3 people that waited until 450 to try to get Zin'rokh got it in there first 14 solves. And initially, that was the suggestion from everyone; wait until 450 so you would have a ton of fragments saved up.