Omegavegeta wrote:
It's my understanding that TV Cersai is unaware that her cousin/former boytoy is a sparrow, so it's reasonable to assume she didn't think they'd go after her since they didn't have evidence against her.
You understand incorrectly. She encountered Lancel in the first episode of the season, during the funeral of Tywin (he's Tywin's nephew, after all). The whole deal with him showing up barefoot and in robes at the funeral was the introduction of the Sparrows as a group. Cersei most definitely knew that the very 1st cousin she'd been having sex with back in season 2 (and may or may not have conspired with to kill Robert Baratheon in season 1) was one of the followers of the man she was counting on to apply strict religious rules in order to imprison Loras and Margaery.
So yeah, it was monumentally stupid for her to do what she did.
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TV GoT has gone out of its way to show how powerful the sparrows are becoming & that Cersai gave them even more power. Keep in mind she didn't just do it to **** over her rivals, but also to make sure the general populace (who are fast becoming sparrows) supports the crown.
It's unclear what her entire motives were, but I think ******** over her rivals was high at the top of the list. I also think, that in her own twisted mind, she was doing it to consolidate and/or hold onto power. Hence, the whole shrinking small council bit. She intentionally sent away or eliminated anyone who might be a rival to her holding direct power in King's Landing. Unfortunately for her, while she's an above average political manipulator, she's a crappy leader (and not too great at seeing down the road). I assume she empowered the High Sparrow specifically because it would eliminate the existing High Septon (a potential rival), while giving her a tool to eliminate Margaery's power over Tommin. Note also, that she replaced the original Grand Maester with that necromancer guy as well. She's basically cleaned house of everyone who has existing political power. Pretty clear pattern of behavior. But it's also a really stupid pattern for her to follow since she's replacing known entities with ones that she can't predict.
Surprise!
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Olenna was completely outplayed because the High Sparrow really is genuine in his beliefs. None of her usual tricks & schemes will work on him because he is such a devout believer. She went into the conversation thinking he was as fake as the former high Septon & got taken down a peg when she realizes (too late) that he isn't.
I think there was some of this. But it was because she saw hypocrisy (selective application of the religious laws) in his own actions. I think what she didn't realize was that he either didn't realize this, or didn't care to admit that he was doing this and thus she could not negotiate with him in that manner. I think she came out of that, not thinking he was a fake, but now thinking that he's a fool. A dangerous fool, but still a fool.
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You missed the point of his "we are the many" speech: He turned Olenna's threat around as he's saying that the Tyrell's don't produce the food she'd be cutting off, his people do. His same people that are currently being oppressed by the Tyrell's. He isn't even really threatening her, he's telling her if she does that she'll lose everything. And by everything I mean the Tyrell's control of the people that live in their kingdom.
The Tyrell's are in a different kingdom though. Where, presumably, the Sparrows don't have the same kind of power. His people are in Kings Landing. Her's are back in her own kingdom. It's pretty unlikely that he's going to be able to create some kind of rebellion back in her lands among the common folk because she's chosen to keep the food they've grown at home rather than send it as tribute (more or less) to Kings Landing. I'm not even sure how that would happen. "Rise up and fight the evil oppressors because they aren't taking our food away from us and giving it to strangers across the continent as part of a political deal that benefits just the rich nobles". Just not seeing that resonate.
The only threat he has is that he is currently holding both of her children. And that's not about honest religious belief. It's about taking hostages. So yeah, hypocrisy on his part. The question is whether knows this and is playing the part of a true believer, or is deluding himself about the legitimacy of his own beliefs, while being drawn into politically oriented actions that directly conflict with those beliefs. I kinda got out of their conversation that Olenna was/is trying to figure that out. And may have gotten her answer. Still not clear on that though.
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He IS applying religious laws fairly & equally as well, or Cersai wouldn't have ended up in their dungeon. You could argue he's using Religious motivations to play the "Game of Thrones", but I'd argue he's playing a different game entirely.
No, he isn't. As Olenna correctly pointed out, if he was, he'd be rounding up sinful commoners by the hundreds, right off the streets around him, rather than feeding and tending to them (ie: buying their support). He's clearly looking the other way when it comes to judging those he needs for support (the common people), while cheerfully going after those he sees as enemies (the nobility). He's acting on political motivations, not religious ones. As I said earlier, the only question is whether he realizes this, and is playing his own political game, or is blind to his own hypocrisy.