I think ARR will succeed.Follow

I see what you did there...

Honestly at the rate Ostia was going I didn't think we were ever even going to get to the point of the discussion where it needed to be pointed out that the "quantity" of content is supposed to indicate the amount of quality experiences the designers have included, rather than the number of tasks they prescribed. In this regard, GW2 absolutely crushes vanilla WoW, no matter how you slice it.

It's not that they both matter so much as they are fundamentally inseparable. It is the quantity of qualities that matters. e.g., conceiving of it as "quantity" is like counting how much money you have by how many bills and coins you have. Not all coins and bills are worth the same. Unfortunately, the quality of a quest is seldom printed on its face.

Well doing the math, if they have even 100,000 subs a month, that's 1.4 million they're pulling in monthly. Server costs can't be that high, this doesn't need to be a blockbuster like WoW to get them their money back.

The only way we will know for sure is when this game launches, I'm optimistic.

That's where you're wrong. SE owns the title entirely meaning there's no debt to repay except their own profit margin. They can swallow the redevelopment a hit in the profits of the company and just let FFXIV coast on it's normal development budget - cashing in solely on the 'redemption' value that will impact their console game sales while FFXIV takes itself slowly out of the red.

Profit in SE is pretty much viewed in total assets, not singular assets. Ones the initial investment cost for FFXIV is finished - so long as they mantain a stable population, they'll make great profits from the game even after pulling it out of the red.

SE has slated a 10 year life span intent for this game, which means they've already a goal subscription number and budget for the next 10 years in mind.

Remember, had this been any other company, with the exception of blizzard, the game likely would have floped and just went FTP. But SE has the money to burn and they burned it. They can afford to plot long-term small gains for large initial losses, especially consitering they already have FFXI - who's profits have already paid for the development and re-development of FFXIV twofold. That's not including the licensed and in-house console projects that sold well in spite of bad reception.

As a business, they can afford to let this one slow-cook. They're likely aiming for much higher than that ideally. However, they've likely already made the realistic projections and budgeted accordingly.

Edited, Mar 14th 2013 11:05pm by Hyrist

Not necessarily. Development costs for one company are not necessarily analogous or proportional to another company, especially considering operating and support costs. There's a point of diminishing returns, as you have to employ a fairly significant staff just to maintain an MMO. Accountants, technicians, community liaisons, etc... lots of people behind the scenes, not to mention some pretty well-paid management and administration if you want qualified people. You can spend more than a million dollars a year just on personnel expenses easily. Factor in taxes, and 100k subs for a triple-A MMO is a game born in the grave. Most MMOs go free to play once subscriptions trend towards 250k subscribers, at least if this occurs early in the game's life cycle.

100K really ? Come on guys the game shipped 650K and flopped, Swotor needs a 500K sub to pay itself overtime, SE needs to pay for XIV and XIVARR, patches, expansions etc etc, we all seem to forget that if SE was so loaded with money, they would not literaly ask for our money to keep XIV afloat. If it does not swim this time around with good numbers is gonna sink, if they for example start off with a good 300k then there is hope, given that the game is actually good etc etc word of mouth will spread and they can pick up a few 100k here and there.

But 100K ? Yeah that will pretty much be the end.

I think whether FtP brings in more cash than PtP is a question that's not as easy to answer as you make it look like.

Scenario 1: If everything is FtP, you earn exactly nothing.
Scenario 2: If most things are FtP, and only a few cosmetic ones are not, your profit stems only from players who are willing to fork over 50 bucks for an aethereal pony. While the world is full of idiots, not every idiot wants an aethereal pony.
Scenario 3: Many things are FtP, but certain features (like raid participation or items for faster progression) require you to pay on a case-by-case basis. That way, you generate first class and second class players, whereof the former may actually pay more than they would in a simple subscription model (see SWtoR; their system, which sells even GUI elements piecemeal, has often be describes as the most horrid abomination possible). Now that would **** me off, because I would most likely belong to the former group.
Scenario 4: PtW. Dies as soon as wealthy players have bought all the items, while the rest left long before.
Scenario 5: It strikes a perfect balance and customers perceive it as completely fair. Welcome to Wonderland.


It brings in a greater turnover of players (and freeriders like RMT), but I have yet to see proof that it leads to a greater overall retention rate.

Edited, Mar 15th 2013 6:02am by Rinsui

Yoshi has been very clear that the game will be a subscription based model, and that's it.

Look I am not soothsaying that the game is going to fail like some players. I actually hope it does well regardless of the payment option. Yoshi can say whatever he pleases and that confidence is admirable. However the playerbase dictates what payment model remains viable and not him. The numbers will show what unfolds.

Like Hyrist said, this isn't just Yoshi, this is Square Enix saying this.

You're too hung up on Wints numbers. 100k isn't even a likely low-point given the fact that we were managing 30k after the debacle of the first releace and the largest available online player base wasn't even tapped at that point.

Whatever subscription concerns I had as far as ones SE would get went out the window when Yoshi-P announced he was making a version for Chineese players. We'll probably stabilize around FFXI's numbers - and that's a conservative estimate.